Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 0.016196 0.018337 0.020673 0.023414 0.026545 0.030016 0.034160
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 0.013043 0.016001 0.019515 0.024009 0.029623 0.036430 0.045347
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.011350 0.014688 0.018882 0.024567 0.032111 0.041840 0.055431
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.009834 0.013283 0.017817 0.024258 0.033241 0.045425 0.063373
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.008705 0.012197 0.016970 0.024032 0.034313 0.048888 0.071385
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.007812 0.011306 0.016252 0.023838 0.035317 0.052248 0.079513
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.007293 0.010877 0.016117 0.024430 0.037472 0.057445 0.090925
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.006641 0.010175 0.015492 0.024189 0.038282 0.060611 0.099433
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.006323 0.009943 0.015544 0.024981 0.040771 0.066635 0.113255
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.005699 0.009166 0.014663 0.024168 0.040521 0.068105 0.119434
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.005238 0.008610 0.014081 0.023779 0.040920 0.070667 0.127761
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.004744 0.007954 0.013274 0.022924 0.040408 0.071557 0.133086
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.004589 0.007865 0.013428 0.023779 0.043069 0.078470 0.150718
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.004404 0.007711 0.013456 0.024414 0.045394 0.085024 0.168514
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.004226 0.007549 0.013451 0.024979 0.047631 0.091624 0.187201
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003937 0.007163 0.013006 0.024665 0.048121 0.094838 0.199220
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003688 0.006828 0.012625 0.024435 0.048745 0.098366 0.212319
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.003465 0.006525 0.012278 0.024238 0.049408 0.102027 0.226145
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.003356 0.006432 0.012327 0.024841 0.051793 0.109568 0.249742
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003160 0.006150 0.011982 0.024595 0.052333 0.113151 0.264519
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003090 0.006118 0.012131 0.025402 0.055253 0.122328 0.293964
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.002860 0.005739 0.011545 0.024574 0.054427 0.122871 0.302063
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.002689 0.005473 0.011172 0.024177 0.054544 0.125612 0.316088